Market Insight

Lock Richards' Insight on the Commercial Real Estate Scene

Recalibration Under Way

At year-end 2022 the Fed is in the middle of their most aggressive financial tightening since 2008, in a desperate attempt to halt rising inflation brought about by huge government deficit spending and supply chain effects from the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine.  The Fed’s ongoing quarterly interest rate increases have led to the …

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The Hangover, Part IV – 2022 Q3 Review

For better or worse “The Hangover” film series may have ended at three, but Hangover 4 may still be heading our way in the form of economic repercussions caused in large part by governmental over-imbibing in the national money supply.  While the pandemic and related shutdowns clearly warranted monetary stimulus, as can be the tendency …

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Recession??? – 2022 Q2 Review

The second quarter of 2022 produced mixed economic signals calling into question the factors that determine a recession. Inflation skyrocketed to over 9% driven primarily by gas and food prices. The Fed is targeting successive 75 basis point increases in the Fed Funds Rate in an attempt to tame the price increases. Additionally, GDP has …

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Industrial-Today’s Darling – 2022 Q1 Review

The industrial real estate market in Western Nevada County (namely Grass Valley and Nevada City) is tighter than it has ever been in my 25 years of real estate work here.  Our industrial vacancy rate now sits at less than 1.5% and rents are steadily increasing. The pandemic has led to a greatly increased money …

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Year End Recap – 2021 Q4 Review

2021 has come to a close with the pandemic continuing to negatively affect the economy in various ways including jobs, supply chain issues and inflation. In spite of this, I feel the commercial property market in Western Nevada County (i.e. Grass Valley and Nevada City) has fared relatively well as evidenced by the graphs to …

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Local vs National Trends – 2021 Q3 Review

How is our local commercial real estate market performing in comparison with the national market? Starting with the office market: Nationally, 26mm net square feet were leased in the 3rd quarter and the office vacancy rate fell +-1% to 16.1%. Locally, office vacancies increased slightly by 5 basis points to 10.71% – still a tighter …

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New Residential Trends Effect on CRE – 2021 Q2 Review

As I have commented on before, I believe the pandemic will be the generator of the largest economic expansion that suburban/tertiary areas such as Nevada County will have experienced in decades.  In the late 1800s, it was gold that drove huge numbers of people to this area. Today, Covid is the pull – or rather …

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Cautious Optimism – 2021 Q1 Review

With vaccines now being distributed and a new government stimulus package underway, the forecast for commercial real estate at the beginning of 2021 is one of cautious optimism. While 2021 brings renewed hope; concerning questions remain. Will vaccine distribution be widespread and quick enough to reach herd immunity? Will new Covid strains surface reducing the …

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2020 – GOOD RIDDANCE! – 2020 Q4 Review

I suspect most folks are extremely happy to see 2020 coming to a close! This was a year of much heartache and suffering. Covid was a game changer that permanently changed social norms and likely the course of (at least US) history as well! In the commercial real estate realm, Covid definitely created distinct categories …

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