Projecting the Economic Cycle – 2018 Q2 Review

America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell dramatically during the great recession hitting a deep hole in 2009; however, since that time GDP growth has generally been positive for the past 8 years.  With the typical business cycle in America averaging about 5.5 years, is the length of the current expansion an indication that recession is imminent?

Current economic signals do not yet support this view.  Job growth remains positive.  Wage growth is beginning but inflation remains low. Sales and GDP are growing. Capital is plentiful.  America has also recently become a net neutral consumer/producer of oil, reducing inflationary spikes and recessionary pressures that formerly allowed entities such as OPEC to create economic havoc.  Several real estate economists and industry experts seem to be projecting continued economic expansion for at least another 1-2 years through late 2019. Recessionary signs for which to keep a look out include rising jobless claims, falling sales, growing inflation and an increasing inventory of available single family homes.

What do all of these signs portend for commercial property owners? While there appears no need for emergency action at this moment, if an owner intends to sell or will be required to refinance his/her property within the next 2-4 years, now is the time to act. Otherwise, owners will want to be prepared to hold onto their property for likely another 5-7 years in order to wait-out the upcoming market correction and take advantage of the next expansion cycle.

LocationSq. Ft.PricePrice/SF
10662 E Bennett Rd, Grass Valley5,202$695,000$133.60
11976 Charles Dr, Grass Valley2,550$340,000$133.33
150 Crown Point Ct, Grass Valley20,000$3,099,000$154.95
12521 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley1,344$110,000$81.85
174-178 Lower Grass Valley Rd, Nevada City8,320$1,275,000$153.25
110 Spring Hill Dr #19, Grass Valley2,124$374,900$176.51
143 Spring Hill Dr Ste 1A, Grass Valley5,200$995,000$191.35
563 Brunswick Rd # 7, Grass Valley1,591$199,000$125.08
565 Brunswick Rd # 15, Grass Valley1,554$279,800$180.05
256 Buena Vista St A-F, Grass Valley7,156$630,000$88.04
900 E Main St, Grass Valley23,500$2,000,000$85.11
140 Manor Dr, Grass Valley2,500$365,000$146.00
944 - 1020 McCourtney Rd, Grass Valley48,336$6,600,000$129.58
104 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City26,336$3,495,000$132.71
351 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,152$275,000$238.72
352 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,530$299,000$195.42
353 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,704$349,000$204.81
357 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,800$399,000$221.67
146 Scandling Ave, Grass Valley1,316$477,700$362.99
225 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley2,545$689,000$270.73
150 Glasson Way, Grass Valley6,462$990,000$153.20
1061 E Main St # 103, Grass Valley1,224$146,800$119.93
1061 E Main St # 201, Grass Valley1,137$189,000$166.23
105 Margaret Ln, Grass Valley2,460$411,000$167.07
300 Sierra College Dr #250, Grass Valley1,740$595,000$341.95
300 Sierra College Dr #165, Grass Valley4,787$1,450,000$302.90
152 S Auburn St, Grass Valley4,414$529,000$119.85
426 Broad St, Nevada City1,333$699,999$525.13
232 Commercial St, Nevada City1,710$695,000$406.43
202 W Main St, Grass Valley1,650$459,000$278.18
217 W Main St, Grass Valley1,188$369,000$310.61
2391 Nevada City Highway, Lot 3, Grass Valley19,034$7,478,000$392.88
345 Railroad Ave, Nevada City7,884$990,000$125.57
1125-1165 Sutton Way, Grass Valley24,539$3,500,000$142.63
LocationSq. Ft.Min Base Price/SFMax Base Price/SF
11986 - 11990 Charles Dr, Grass Valley2,750$0.82$0.82
150 Crown Point Ct, Grass Valley20,000$0.80$0.80
13340-13346 Grass Valley Ave, Grass Valley4,000$0.66$0.66
12555 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley1,200$0.95$0.95
143 Spring Hill Dr Ste 1A, Grass Valley5,082$1.23$1.23
120 N Auburn St, Grass Valley232$1.86$1.86
124 S Auburn St, Grass Valley5,100$0.55$0.55
131 S Auburn St, Grass Valley1,994$1.51$1.51
375 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley6,791$1.28$1.28
464-458 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley7,278$1.73$1.93
512 - 528 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley720$1.24$1.24
563 Brunswick Rd # 7, Grass Valley1,591$1.26$1.26
214 Church St, Nevada City421$2.14$2.14
124 Clydesdale Ct, Grass Valley7,352$0.75$0.75
333 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley1,955$1.50$1.50
345 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley815$1.55$1.55
350 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley5,550$1.40$1.40
355 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley12,000$0.60$0.60
360 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley9,603$1.39$1.49
431 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley11,100$0.85$0.85
488 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley5,168$1.62$1.62
13100 Grass Valley Ave, Grass Valley4,352$0.50$0.50
154 Hughes Rd #5, Grass Valley922$0.95$0.95
154 Hughes Rd #8, Grass Valley648$0.95$0.95
154 Hughes Rd #6, Grass Valley648$0.95$0.95
154 Hughes Rd #4, Grass Valley648$0.95$0.95
154 Hughes Rd #7, Grass Valley1,428$1.25$1.25
200 Litton Dr, Grass Valley3,000$1.40$1.40
224 Main St, Nevada City1,630$1.65$1.65
900 E Main St, Grass Valley7,400$1.15$1.15
970 E Main St, Grass Valley750$1.10$1.10
944 - 1020 McCourtney Rd, Grass Valley5,537$1.55$1.55
123 Nevada St, Nevada City690$1.07$1.07
138 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City9,000$2.00$2.00
208 Gold Flat Ct, Nevada City4,981$0.95$0.95
101 - 106 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City6,176$1.41$1.43
200 - 208 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City13,529$1.47$1.48
351-357 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,152-1,800$1.60$1.80
400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City6,265$0.95$0.95
400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City72,110$0.95$0.95
400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City71,985$0.95$0.95
420 Sierra College Dr, Grass Valley1,750$1.90$1.90
165 Spring Hill Dr, Grass Valley2,500$1.00$1.00
401 Spring St, Nevada City500$1.29$1.29
419 Spring St, Nevada City480$1.35$1.35
1012 Sutton Way, Grass Valley3,200$2.83$2.83
431 Uren St, Nevada City2,210$1.22$1.47
1415 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley8,009$1.60$1.60
819 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley5,176$0.75$0.75
900 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley4,000$0.65$1.00
470 S Auburn St, Grass Valley2,111$1.30$1.30
563 Brunswick Rd # 10, Grass Valley1,463$1.20$1.20
123 Margaret Ln, Grass Valley1,200$1.30$1.30
404 Sierra College Dr, Grass Valley1,000$1.65$1.65
301 Broad St, Nevada City1,278$1.64$1.64
102 Catherine Ln, Grass Valley5,496$1.15$1.15
650 Freeman Ln, Grass Valley15,717$2.20$2.20
131-139 Joerschke Dr, Grass Valley3,680$1.03$1.03
104 E Main St, Grass Valley1,354$1.54$1.54
533-537 E Main St, Grass Valley14,300$1.20$1.20
840 E Main St, Grass Valley6,727$1.60$1.60
116 W Main St, Grass Valley690$0.94$0.94
633 - 653 Maltman Dr, Grass Valley8,175$1.01$1.01
111 W McKnight Way, Grass Valley5,190$2.06$2.06
114 Mill St & 115 S Church St, Grass Valley2,160$1.00$1.00
2032 - 2118 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley9,769$1.76$1.76
984 Plaza Dr, Grass Valley5,600$1.35$1.35
399-471 Sutton Way, Grass Valley1,296$1.25$1.25
526-720 Sutton Way, Grass Valley3,300$2.11$2.11
LocationSq. Ft.Sale/LeaseClose Date
2391 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley19,034Lease4/1/2018
179 Clydesdale Ct, Grass Valley43,298Sale4/20/2018
901 La Barr Meadows Rd C, Grass Valley1,492Sale4/20/2018
13471 Bowman Rd, Auburn3,030Sale5/11/2018
830 Zion St, Nevada City1,960Lease5/14/2018
354 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,494Lease5/17/2018
12525 - 12531 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley3,648Sale5/21/2018
448 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley3,520Sale5/21/2018
111 Margaret Lane, Grass Valley2,679Sale6/21/2018

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