America’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell dramatically during the great recession hitting a deep hole in 2009; however, since that time GDP growth has generally been positive for the past 8 years. With the typical business cycle in America averaging about 5.5 years, is the length of the current expansion an indication that recession is imminent?
Current economic signals do not yet support this view. Job growth remains positive. Wage growth is beginning but inflation remains low. Sales and GDP are growing. Capital is plentiful. America has also recently become a net neutral consumer/producer of oil, reducing inflationary spikes and recessionary pressures that formerly allowed entities such as OPEC to create economic havoc. Several real estate economists and industry experts seem to be projecting continued economic expansion for at least another 1-2 years through late 2019. Recessionary signs for which to keep a look out include rising jobless claims, falling sales, growing inflation and an increasing inventory of available single family homes.
What do all of these signs portend for commercial property owners? While there appears no need for emergency action at this moment, if an owner intends to sell or will be required to refinance his/her property within the next 2-4 years, now is the time to act. Otherwise, owners will want to be prepared to hold onto their property for likely another 5-7 years in order to wait-out the upcoming market correction and take advantage of the next expansion cycle.
| AVAILABLE FOR SALE Q2 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Sq. Ft. | Price | Price/SF |
| Industrial | |||
| 10662 E Bennett Rd, Grass Valley | 5,202 | $695,000 | $133.60 |
| 11976 Charles Dr, Grass Valley | 2,550 | $340,000 | $133.33 |
| 150 Crown Point Ct, Grass Valley | 20,000 | $3,099,000 | $154.95 |
| 12521 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley | 1,344 | $110,000 | $81.85 |
| 174-178 Lower Grass Valley Rd, Nevada City | 8,320 | $1,275,000 | $153.25 |
| 110 Spring Hill Dr #19, Grass Valley | 2,124 | $374,900 | $176.51 |
| 143 Spring Hill Dr Ste 1A, Grass Valley | 5,200 | $995,000 | $191.35 |
| Office | |||
| 563 Brunswick Rd # 7, Grass Valley | 1,591 | $199,000 | $125.08 |
| 565 Brunswick Rd # 15, Grass Valley | 1,554 | $279,800 | $180.05 |
| 256 Buena Vista St A-F, Grass Valley | 7,156 | $630,000 | $88.04 |
| 900 E Main St, Grass Valley | 23,500 | $2,000,000 | $85.11 |
| 140 Manor Dr, Grass Valley | 2,500 | $365,000 | $146.00 |
| 944 - 1020 McCourtney Rd, Grass Valley | 48,336 | $6,600,000 | $129.58 |
| 104 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City | 26,336 | $3,495,000 | $132.71 |
| 351 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,152 | $275,000 | $238.72 |
| 352 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,530 | $299,000 | $195.42 |
| 353 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,704 | $349,000 | $204.81 |
| 357 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,800 | $399,000 | $221.67 |
| 146 Scandling Ave, Grass Valley | 1,316 | $477,700 | $362.99 |
| Medical/Dental | |||
| 225 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley | 2,545 | $689,000 | $270.73 |
| 150 Glasson Way, Grass Valley | 6,462 | $990,000 | $153.20 |
| 1061 E Main St # 103, Grass Valley | 1,224 | $146,800 | $119.93 |
| 1061 E Main St # 201, Grass Valley | 1,137 | $189,000 | $166.23 |
| 105 Margaret Ln, Grass Valley | 2,460 | $411,000 | $167.07 |
| 300 Sierra College Dr #250, Grass Valley | 1,740 | $595,000 | $341.95 |
| 300 Sierra College Dr #165, Grass Valley | 4,787 | $1,450,000 | $302.90 |
| Retail | |||
| 152 S Auburn St, Grass Valley | 4,414 | $529,000 | $119.85 |
| 426 Broad St, Nevada City | 1,333 | $699,999 | $525.13 |
| 232 Commercial St, Nevada City | 1,710 | $695,000 | $406.43 |
| 202 W Main St, Grass Valley | 1,650 | $459,000 | $278.18 |
| 217 W Main St, Grass Valley | 1,188 | $369,000 | $310.61 |
| 2391 Nevada City Highway, Lot 3, Grass Valley | 19,034 | $7,478,000 | $392.88 |
| 345 Railroad Ave, Nevada City | 7,884 | $990,000 | $125.57 |
| 1125-1165 Sutton Way, Grass Valley | 24,539 | $3,500,000 | $142.63 |
| AVAILABLE FOR LEASE Q2 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Sq. Ft. | Min Base Price/SF | Max Base Price/SF |
| Industrial | |||
| 11986 - 11990 Charles Dr, Grass Valley | 2,750 | $0.82 | $0.82 |
| 150 Crown Point Ct, Grass Valley | 20,000 | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| 13340-13346 Grass Valley Ave, Grass Valley | 4,000 | $0.66 | $0.66 |
| 12555 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley | 1,200 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 143 Spring Hill Dr Ste 1A, Grass Valley | 5,082 | $1.23 | $1.23 |
| Office | |||
| 120 N Auburn St, Grass Valley | 232 | $1.86 | $1.86 |
| 124 S Auburn St, Grass Valley | 5,100 | $0.55 | $0.55 |
| 131 S Auburn St, Grass Valley | 1,994 | $1.51 | $1.51 |
| 375 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley | 6,791 | $1.28 | $1.28 |
| 464-458 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley | 7,278 | $1.73 | $1.93 |
| 512 - 528 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley | 720 | $1.24 | $1.24 |
| 563 Brunswick Rd # 7, Grass Valley | 1,591 | $1.26 | $1.26 |
| 214 Church St, Nevada City | 421 | $2.14 | $2.14 |
| 124 Clydesdale Ct, Grass Valley | 7,352 | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| 333 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 1,955 | $1.50 | $1.50 |
| 345 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 815 | $1.55 | $1.55 |
| 350 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 5,550 | $1.40 | $1.40 |
| 355 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 12,000 | $0.60 | $0.60 |
| 360 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 9,603 | $1.39 | $1.49 |
| 431 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 11,100 | $0.85 | $0.85 |
| 488 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley | 5,168 | $1.62 | $1.62 |
| 13100 Grass Valley Ave, Grass Valley | 4,352 | $0.50 | $0.50 |
| 154 Hughes Rd #5, Grass Valley | 922 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 154 Hughes Rd #8, Grass Valley | 648 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 154 Hughes Rd #6, Grass Valley | 648 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 154 Hughes Rd #4, Grass Valley | 648 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 154 Hughes Rd #7, Grass Valley | 1,428 | $1.25 | $1.25 |
| 200 Litton Dr, Grass Valley | 3,000 | $1.40 | $1.40 |
| 224 Main St, Nevada City | 1,630 | $1.65 | $1.65 |
| 900 E Main St, Grass Valley | 7,400 | $1.15 | $1.15 |
| 970 E Main St, Grass Valley | 750 | $1.10 | $1.10 |
| 944 - 1020 McCourtney Rd, Grass Valley | 5,537 | $1.55 | $1.55 |
| 123 Nevada St, Nevada City | 690 | $1.07 | $1.07 |
| 138 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City | 9,000 | $2.00 | $2.00 |
| 208 Gold Flat Ct, Nevada City | 4,981 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 101 - 106 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 6,176 | $1.41 | $1.43 |
| 200 - 208 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 13,529 | $1.47 | $1.48 |
| 351-357 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,152-1,800 | $1.60 | $1.80 |
| 400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 6,265 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 72,110 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 71,985 | $0.95 | $0.95 |
| 420 Sierra College Dr, Grass Valley | 1,750 | $1.90 | $1.90 |
| 165 Spring Hill Dr, Grass Valley | 2,500 | $1.00 | $1.00 |
| 401 Spring St, Nevada City | 500 | $1.29 | $1.29 |
| 419 Spring St, Nevada City | 480 | $1.35 | $1.35 |
| 1012 Sutton Way, Grass Valley | 3,200 | $2.83 | $2.83 |
| 431 Uren St, Nevada City | 2,210 | $1.22 | $1.47 |
| 1415 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley | 8,009 | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| 819 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley | 5,176 | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| 900 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley | 4,000 | $0.65 | $1.00 |
| Medical/Dental | |||
| 470 S Auburn St, Grass Valley | 2,111 | $1.30 | $1.30 |
| 563 Brunswick Rd # 10, Grass Valley | 1,463 | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| 123 Margaret Ln, Grass Valley | 1,200 | $1.30 | $1.30 |
| 404 Sierra College Dr, Grass Valley | 1,000 | $1.65 | $1.65 |
| Retail | |||
| 301 Broad St, Nevada City | 1,278 | $1.64 | $1.64 |
| 102 Catherine Ln, Grass Valley | 5,496 | $1.15 | $1.15 |
| 650 Freeman Ln, Grass Valley | 15,717 | $2.20 | $2.20 |
| 131-139 Joerschke Dr, Grass Valley | 3,680 | $1.03 | $1.03 |
| 104 E Main St, Grass Valley | 1,354 | $1.54 | $1.54 |
| 533-537 E Main St, Grass Valley | 14,300 | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| 840 E Main St, Grass Valley | 6,727 | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| 116 W Main St, Grass Valley | 690 | $0.94 | $0.94 |
| 633 - 653 Maltman Dr, Grass Valley | 8,175 | $1.01 | $1.01 |
| 111 W McKnight Way, Grass Valley | 5,190 | $2.06 | $2.06 |
| 114 Mill St & 115 S Church St, Grass Valley | 2,160 | $1.00 | $1.00 |
| 2032 - 2118 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley | 9,769 | $1.76 | $1.76 |
| 984 Plaza Dr, Grass Valley | 5,600 | $1.35 | $1.35 |
| 399-471 Sutton Way, Grass Valley | 1,296 | $1.25 | $1.25 |
| 526-720 Sutton Way, Grass Valley | 3,300 | $2.11 | $2.11 |
| RECENT TRANSACTIONS Q2 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Sq. Ft. | Sale/Lease | Close Date |
| 2391 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley | 19,034 | Lease | 4/1/2018 |
| 179 Clydesdale Ct, Grass Valley | 43,298 | Sale | 4/20/2018 |
| 901 La Barr Meadows Rd C, Grass Valley | 1,492 | Sale | 4/20/2018 |
| 13471 Bowman Rd, Auburn | 3,030 | Sale | 5/11/2018 |
| 830 Zion St, Nevada City | 1,960 | Lease | 5/14/2018 |
| 354 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City | 1,494 | Lease | 5/17/2018 |
| 12525 - 12531 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley | 3,648 | Sale | 5/21/2018 |
| 448 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley | 3,520 | Sale | 5/21/2018 |
| 111 Margaret Lane, Grass Valley | 2,679 | Sale | 6/21/2018 |
