Recalibration Under Way – 2022 Q4 Review

At year-end 2022 the Fed is in the middle of their most aggressive financial tightening since 2008, in a desperate attempt to halt rising inflation brought about by huge government deficit spending and supply chain effects from the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine.  The Fed’s ongoing quarterly interest rate increases have led to the dreaded “inverted yield curve”, a historical harbinger of a pending recession. This in turn has brought the relatively robust commercial real estate activity of the first three-quarters of 2022 to an abrupt halt here in the fourth quarter.

We now see a growing chasm between seller and buyer pricing expectations; and with realty setting in that the market has indeed changed, price recalibration is beginning to occur. Dwindling investor demand is leading to leveling or declining pricing as cap rates begin to inch higher and the spread with the 10-year treasury tightens.  Such a market tends to drive many investors to the sidelines or to seek primarily higher quality assets with established and enduring cashflows.

The news is not all bad however. There is a huge amount of patient capital available for deals that make sense, and fresh opportunities are emerging. By way of example, retail properties are emerging as the new industry darling due to consumers rediscovering the post-pandemic joy and physical and emotional fulfillment of in-person shopping.

LocationSq. Ft.PricePrice/SF
12481 Charles Dr, Grass Valley34,950$4,800,000$137.34
972 Golden Gate Ter, Grass Valley4,864$799,000$164.27
12507 Loma Rica Dr, Grass Valley1,332$140,000$105.11
174-178 Lower Grass Valley Rd, Nevada City8,590$1,249,000$145.40
258 Railroad Ave, Grass Valley1,824$479,900$263.10
371 Railroad Ave, Grass Valley3,740$650,000$173.80
110 Spring Hill Dr # 3 & 4, Grass Valley3,952$605,000$153.09
110 Spring HIll Dr # 1 & 2, Grass Valley5,500$795,000$144.55
512 - 528 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley6,164$995,000$161.42
563 Brunswick Rd # 2, Grass Valley1,151$199,000$172.89
565 Brunswick Rd # 9, Grass Valley1,387$179,000$129.06
11235 Cliffs Place, Grass Valley1,501$429,000$285.81
424 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley16,000$3,050,000$190.62
443 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley15,264$2,500,000$163.78
900 Golden Gate Ter, Grass Valley20,000$3,500,000$175.00
964 Golden Gate Ter, Grass Valley5,740$749,000$130.49
224 Main St, Nevada City4,670$1,225,000$262.31
406 - 412 E Main St, Grass Valley7,714$1,470,000$190.56
2344 & 2352 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley3,212$600,000$186.80
2611 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley2,172$580,000$267.03
104 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City26,336$2,200,000$83.54
819 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley24,426$3,300,000$135.10
509 S Auburn St, Grass Valley1,429$590,000$412.88
225 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley2,545$869,000$341.45
300 Sierra College Dr #165, Grass Valley4,787$1,900,000$329.64
700 Zion St, Nevada City12,000$2,700,000$225.00
1061 E Main St # 104, Grass Valley1,813$265,000$146.17
1061 E Main St # 103, Grass Valley1,224$199,000$162.58
210 Broad St, Nevada City21,675$2,250,000$103.81
214 Broad St, Nevada City1,684$895,000$564.13
315 Broad St, Nevada City4,979$1,350,000$271.14
202 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley1,492$495,000$331.77
434 Colfax Ave, Grass Valley3,052$625,000$204.78
840 E Main St, Grass Valley28,706$4,550,000$158.50
127-129 Mill St, Grass Valley1,802$599,000$332.41
163 Mill St, Grass Valley12,600$2,450,000$194.44
16282 Mount Olive Rd, Grass Valley5,655$625,000$110.52

Location Sq. Ft.Min Base Price/SFMax Base Price/SF
12048 - 12050 Charles Dr, Grass Valley1,500$1.00$1.00
416 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley22,922$0.81$0.81
972 Golden Gate Ter, Grass Valley2,536$1.14$1.14
155 Spring Hill Dr # 201, Grass Valley2,777$0.54$0.54
131 S Auburn St, Grass Valley1,066$1.50$1.50
375 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley5,798$1.28$1.28
464-458 Brunswick Rd, Grass Valley6,116$1.60$2.05
505 Coyote St, Nevada City6,749$1.65$1.65
333 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley6,463$1.55$1.55
350 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley5,089$1.55$1.55
355 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley4,800$0.60$0.60
360 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley8,629$1.49$1.49
431 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley7,900$0.85$0.85
443 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley15,264$1.25
488 Crown Point Cir, Grass Valley5,168$1.60$1.80
964 Golden Gate Ter, Grass Valley3,940$0.89$1.25
13100 Grass Valley/12438 Loma Rica, Grass Valley4,960$0.69$0.69
200 Litton Dr, Grass Valley1,500$1.40$1.40
12190 Loma Rica Drive, Grass Valley2,600$1.10$1.10
900 E Main St, Grass Valley5,900$1.84$1.90
970 E Main St, Grass Valley1,350$1.30$1.30
944 - 1020 McCourtney Rd, Grass Valley12,662$1.73$1.73
104 New Mohawk Rd, Nevada City12,000$0.79$0.79
101 - 106 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City5,209$1.60$1.60
200 - 208 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City20,382$1.60$1.60
310 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City20,282$1.75$1.85
351 - 356 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City1,736$1.78$1.78
400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City72,110$1.15$2.15
420 Sierra College Dr, Grass Valley1,750$2.20$2.20
1012 Sutton Way, Grass Valley3,200$1.87$1.87
841 - 857 Sutton Way, Grass Valley601$1.75$1.75
819 Whispering Pines Ln, Grass Valley5,200$0.85$0.85
402 S Auburn St, Grass Valley2,880$1.50
563 Brunswick Rd # 5, Grass Valley1,473$1.15$1.15
123 Margaret Ln, Grass Valley1,550$1.60
700 Zion St, Nevada City12,000$1.36
10052 Alta Sierra Dr, Grass Valley540$1.35$1.35
114 Argall Way, Nevada City1,159$1.21$1.21
133 Argall Way, Nevada City2,700$1.25$1.25
233 Broad St, Nevada City4,000$2.25
650 Freeman Ln, Grass Valley13,886$1.95$2.20
840 E Main St, Grass Valley18,618$1.60$2.85
138 E Main St & 131 Richardson St, Grass Valley2,187$1.00$1.00
111 W McKnight Way, Grass Valley8,183$1.50$2.15
2032 - 2118 Nevada City Hwy, Grass Valley2,925$1.56$1.56
399-471 Sutton Way, Grass Valley1,402$1.45$1.45
526-720 Sutton Way, Grass Valley2,250$2.85$2.85
102 - 108 Union St, Nevada City1,843$2.00

LocationSq. Ft.Sale/LeaseClose Date
1005 Sutton Way, Grass Valley25,208Sale10/17/2022
206 W Main St, Grass Valley3,950Sale10/17/2022
908 Taylorville Rd, Grass Valley11,676Sale10/24/2022
824 Zion St, Nevada City1,217Sale10/24/2022
426 Sutton Way, Grass Valley1,460Lease11/9/2022
404 S Auburn St, Grass Valley912Sale11/15/2022
5961 W Oaks Blvd, Rocklin11,613Sale11/29/2022
310 Broad St, Nevada City1,200Lease12/15/2022
400 Providence Mine Rd, Nevada City3,989Lease12/15/2022
830 Zion St, Nevada City1,960Sale12/16/2022

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