Election Holding Pattern – 2016 Q3 Review

NevaLock Richards B&W union crop smda County commercial real estate markets appear to be in a holding pattern with continued slow rent growth and value appreciation and minor tightening of vacancy rates in all product types. The upcoming presidential election is likely influencing businesses and investors to sit on the sidelines until more clarity is gained with respect to the direction of the country.

Looking at the national macro economy, we are seeing stable but slow growth, with the rate of growth trending still slower.  Employment and housing growth are the current indicators of concern for the coming several months and should be watched carefully. It is becoming difficult for employers to find qualified labor in the States, which will exert some inflationary pressure.

Major markets (New York, San Francisco, Chicago, LA) have seen the greatest appreciation with the commercial property pricing index in these markets now at an all-time high (surpassing ’07-’08 levels). Non-major markets (including smaller tertiary markets like Nevada County) have seen less of a pricing run-up. Therefore, investors looking for good yield and stability may find their best opportunities in these smaller markets which may have more potential growth capability

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